The second week of July brings high-stakes events for the forex and commodities market. From Powell’s testimony to U.S. inflation data, this week’s events will play a pivotal role in shaping market direction across USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, GOLD, and major indices like NAS100 and DJI.
Here’s your detailed weekly economic outlook and market impact analysis.
📅 Economic Calendar Highlights (GMT)
| Date | Time | Event | Forecast / Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9 (Tue) | 14:00 | 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Testifies | – |
| Jul 10 (Wed) | 06:00 | 🇬🇧 UK GDP m/m | 0.2% / 0.4% |
| 12:30 | 🇺🇸 Core CPI m/m | 0.2% / 0.2% | |
| 12:30 | 🇺🇸 CPI m/m | 0.1% / 0.0% | |
| Jul 11 (Thu) | 12:30 | 🇺🇸 PPI m/m | 0.1% / -0.2% |
| Jul 12 (Fri) | 14:00 | 🇺🇸 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | 68.6 / 68.2 |
📌 Source: Investing.com Economic Calendar
🔎 Deep Dive: Market Impact by Event
🧾 1. Fed Chair Powell Testifies – Tuesday, July 9
Instruments impacted: USD, GOLD, DJI, NAS100
- Powell’s testimony before Congress could deliver fresh clues on future rate decisions.
- If he maintains a hawkish tone, expect USD strength, pressure on gold, and downside in risk assets.
- Dovish commentary would likely weaken USD and support indices and gold.
🔁 Watch for tone, inflation mentions, and labor market comments.
💹 2. UK GDP m/m – Wednesday, July 10
Instruments impacted: GBP, EURGBP, GBPUSD
- UK’s monthly GDP is a key signal for Bank of England’s policy stance.
- A reading above 0.2% may boost GBP on increased rate hike bets.
- A softer print would weaken GBP, especially if USD data is strong later in the day.
📈 Potential opportunity in GBP/USD and EUR/GBP post-release volatility.
🏦 3. US CPI & Core CPI m/m – Wednesday, July 10
Instruments impacted: USD, GOLD, NAS100, DJI, EURUSD, USDJPY
- Arguably the week’s biggest event. CPI directly influences Fed expectations.
- Core CPI above 0.2% will strengthen USD, pressure gold and tech indices.
- A soft print would fuel dovish bets, weakening USD and boosting risk-on trades.
⚠️ CPI volatility can be sharp — trade with tight stops and wait for confirmation.
📊 4. US PPI m/m – Thursday, July 11
Instruments impacted: USD, Gold, SPX, Oil
- PPI reveals producer-side inflation. A surprise rise could indicate sticky inflation.
- Higher PPI + higher CPI = strong USD.
- Lower PPI would further cement a dovish outlook, supporting gold and stocks.
📉 Markets will price forward inflation expectations based on CPI+PPI combo.
🧠 5. UoM Consumer Sentiment – Friday, July 12
Instruments impacted: USD, S&P 500, GOLD
- Final event of the week. Weak confidence could dent USD and spark risk-off tone.
- Higher sentiment may support a risk rally and push USD higher short-term.
🎯 Consumer expectations also influence inflation outlook — especially inflation expectations component.
🌍 Currency & Asset Impact Summary
| Asset | Expected Volatility | Bias This Week |
|---|---|---|
| USD | High | 📈 Bullish if CPI surprises to upside |
| EUR/USD | Medium | 📉 Bearish on USD strength |
| GBP/USD | Medium | 📈 Bullish if UK GDP strong |
| USD/JPY | High | 📈 Bullish with high CPI / Powell hawkishness |
| GOLD | High | 📉 Bearish on high inflation / USD strength |
| DJI / NAS | Medium–High | 📉 Downside risk with inflation uptick |
| OIL (WTI) | Medium | Neutral to mild upside if inflation remains low |
These biases may shift with actual data. Trade the reaction, not the forecast.
🔁 Midweek Scenario Plan
If CPI > 0.2% and Powell is Hawkish:
- Long: USD/JPY, USD/CAD
- Short: EUR/USD, GOLD, NAS100
If CPI < 0.1% and Powell is Dovish:
- Long: GOLD, NAS100, GBP/USD
- Short: USD/JPY
If UK GDP surprises to upside:
- Long: GBP/USD
- Short: EUR/GBP
🧭 Weekly Trading Tips
- Wait for confirmation candles post-news before entering.
- Watch for post-CPI “fakeouts” in USD pairs – use 15m and 1H TFs.
- Don’t trade CPI without SLs. Be aware of slippage during news spikes.
- Watch USD/JPY closely – it reacts to both Powell and inflation aggressively.
📚 Sources Used
- 📌 Investing.com Economic Calendar
- 📌 TradingEconomics – Forecasts & History
- 📌 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – CPI & PPI
- 📌 Bank of England – GDP Reporting
- 📌 Federal Reserve – Speeches
- 📌 University of Michigan – Surveys
✅ Final Word
This week is full of directional catalysts. Whether you’re trading majors like EUR/USD, safe havens like GOLD, or stock indices like NAS100, align your bias with the data flow, and adjust your risk around CPI, PPI, and Powell’s speech.
If you’re in the MoneyVest community, check Telegram for daily chart updates, watchlist setups, and live reaction posts throughout the week.