Weekly Forex Market Outlook: June 23–28, 2025
This week in the forex markets is packed with high-impact U.S. economic data, Powell’s two-day testimony, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Expect volatility across USD pairs and commodities like gold (XAU/USD). Below is your daily breakdown with technical insights.
🔹 Monday, June 23 – Flash PMIs to Set the Tone
- Key releases: US Manufacturing & Services PMIs (9:45 AM ET)
- Forecasts: Manufacturing ~51.2 (vs. 52.0 prior), Services ~52.9 (vs. 53.7 prior)
- Impact: Stronger PMIs = bullish USD, bearish gold. Weaker PMIs = safe-haven gold bid.
🔹 Tuesday, June 24 – Powell Testifies, Confidence Data
- Powell speaks before House Financial Services Committee.
- Consumer Confidence index expected around 99–100.
- Impact: Hawkish Powell = USD strength. Dovish tone = gold rally.
🔹 Wednesday, June 25 – Powell Day 2 & Crude Inventory
- Second day of Powell testimony (Senate).
- EIA Oil Inventories: Large draw = inflation fears = USD/gold up; build = cooling inflation = USD soft.
🔹 Thursday, June 26 – GDP, Durable Goods & Jobless Claims
- Durable Goods Orders: Expected rebound (+7% to +8%) due to aircraft orders.
- Final Q1 GDP: Possibility of downward revision to flat/negative growth.
- Jobless Claims: ~247K forecast. Higher claims = weak USD, gold up.
🔹 Friday, June 27 – Core PCE Inflation
- Fed’s preferred inflation metric: Core PCE expected at +0.1% MoM.
- Personal Income (+0.3%) and Spending (+0.2%) data also released.
- Impact: Higher inflation = hawkish Fed = USD strength, gold weakness. Lower PCE = dovish outlook = gold positive.
📊 Technical Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD)
- Trend: Bullish
- Support Zones: $3,320 (50-day MA), then $3,200 (key structure zone)
- Resistance: $3,400–$3,450; breakout targets $3,500
- RSI-based pullbacks around 50 have proven reliable for rebound entries.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
- Trend: Bearish consolidation below 100
- Support: 98.0–98.3 zone (critical floor)
- Resistance: 100.90 (pivot), then 101.9 (major cap)
- Breakout only likely with a hawkish Powell or hot inflation data.
✅ Conclusion & Actionable Insight
This week’s volatility presents both risk and opportunity. From durable goods to PCE inflation, every data point adds fuel to the Fed speculation fire. Smart traders will track technical levels alongside news.
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