As we move into the first week of July, Forex markets are bracing for high-impact economic releases from the US, UK, EU, and China. With Fed Chair Powell speaking, labor market data in focus, and inflation reports due, volatility across USD pairs, Gold, Oil, and indices like NAS100/DJI is expected to spike midweek.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of each major release and what it could mean for your trading decisions.
📅 Week Overview: Events & Expected Impact
Monday – June 30
- 🇨🇳 China Manufacturing PMI (49.6)
Impact: Mildly bearish for AUD and global indices.
Sub-50 figure signals contraction, pressuring risk sentiment. Could drag commodities and hurt AUD, boost USD. - 🇬🇧 UK GDP (QoQ 0.7%, YoY 1.3%)
Impact: GBP at risk.
Growth is softening YoY; the upside surprise in QoQ may provide limited intraday strength to GBPUSD. - 🇪🇺 German CPI (0.2% MoM)
Impact: EUR neutral.
Matches expectations. Eyes remain on broader EU CPI on Tuesday. - 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (42.7)
Impact: USD mildly bearish.
Continued contraction supports dovish Fed bias. Watch for Gold and NAS100 bullishness.
Tuesday – July 1
- 🎉 Canada & HK Market Holiday
- 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI YoY (2.0%)
Impact: EUR stability.
Meets forecast; keeps ECB cautious. Watch EURUSD near support zones. - 🎙️ Fed Chair Powell Speaks (19:00 GMT)
Impact: High USD volatility.
Expect sharp intraday spikes. Hawkish tone = bearish Gold, bullish USD. Dovish = Gold/NAS100 could surge. - 🇺🇸 US Manufacturing Trio (ISM PMI, Prices, JOLTS)
- ISM PMI at 48.8 = contraction
- Prices higher = inflationary pressure
- JOLTS strong = tight labor market
Impact: Mixed USD direction. Watch for whipsaws across XAUUSD, USDJPY, and US indices.
Wednesday – July 2
- 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change (105K)
Impact: USD bullish tone building up.
Stronger-than-expected jobs number supports NFP upside bias. - 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories (-5.83M)
Impact: Bullish for WTI/OIL.
Tight supply supports Oil recovery. Could affect CAD and risk appetite.
Thursday – July 3 (Key Trading Day)
- 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (120K)
Impact: High USD impact.
Below previous, but strong enough to support policy hold. USDJPY & NAS100 sensitive. - 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (4.3%)
Slightly higher = USD under pressure. - 🇺🇸 ISM Services & Prices
- Services PMI expected to hold
- Prices will determine inflation pressure
Impact: Gold could see late-day breakout if prices surge.
Friday – July 4
- 🇺🇸 US Independence Day
Impact: No trading volume from US. Expect sideways/low volatility in USD pairs.
🔎 Key Trading Insights by Asset
USD
- High impact week due to Powell + NFP.
- Expect strong moves Tues–Thurs on USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD.
EUR
- Stable CPI = limited volatility.
- Best traded around Powell’s speech or USD event-led momentum.
GBP
- GDP weakness will linger.
- Avoid fresh longs until market digests midweek sentiment.
JPY (USDJPY)
- Follow-through expected if NFP is strong.
- Safe-haven flows may boost JPY midweek during Powell volatility.
GOLD (XAUUSD)
- Likely volatile post-Powell and post-NFP.
- A dovish tone could push Gold above key resistance.
- Inflation cues from ISM Prices to be watched closely.
OIL (WTI/Brent)
- Strong crude draw supports bullish bias.
- OPEC reactions + global PMI contraction will define sentiment.
NAS100 / DJI
- Equities may surge on dovish Powell.
- Weak NFP = tech rebound.
- Strong NFP = mixed reaction (earnings > jobs?)
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